RISI Crow's Market Recap
Lumber: Strong SPF sales activity the week prior set the market up for steady to higher pricing. Some producers tried to sell into the market more than usual, in part due to the time of year. Others, with order files out to the end of the month increased quotes for December shipments. Some went OTM, having sold November volumes. Gains were made across most Southern Pine #2 pricing, but 2x4 and 2x10 remained weak. Producers reported “fair” sales activity, which was echoed by a number of yards. Persistent rains continued to restrict job site activity. A moderately improved trading pace following improved sales the week prior firmed Coastal species prices early and prompted producers to nudge some quotes higher. Buyers filled inventory holes that developed over several weeks. Others purchased steadily. Sales to truss manufacturers in local markets were solid. Inland lumber markets slowed considerably from the latter part of the prior week, probably at least in part because of the NAWLA Traders Market being held in Chicago this week. Prices were up slightly in Fir-Larch and lacked negativity in either Inland species. Stud producers reported good follow-through from the prior week’s increase in demand. Overall, studs outperformed other framing lumber markets with regard to price. Especially strong was 9’ in both 2x4 and 2x6. Radiata Pine industrials were much more readily available than they have been recently. Ponderosa Pine industrial lumber increased in abundance, with 5/4 Mldg&Btr and Shop expanding mill inventories. Price changes were generally limited to 5/4 items, especially #3 Shop, which was reportedly selling at some deeply discounted numbers. Ponderosa Pine Selects and Commons reported unchanged prices in Selects and #2. The #3 Common were easily available and could be purchased at double-digit discounts. Western Red Cedar buying consisted of mixed loads to conservatively fill inventory holes. Those more tightly supplied items, such as timbers and wides, were again used to compel buyers to add slower moving products such as 2x4s and decking items to orders.
A price index of lumber and panels used in actual construction for Nov. 9, 2018.
Western: regional species perimeter foundation
Southern: regional species slab construction
Panels: OSB markets were mostly quiet for the week, with much of the activity consisting of fill-in orders. Pricing stabilized after weeks of dramatic downward corrections. However, there is no urgency among buyers, especially given the time of year. Moderate momentum from the prior week’s increase in Southern Pine plywood sales activity carried over, easing the volume of discounted panels available in the market. Because of the uptick in demand, producers chose to extend order files rather than bump prices more aggressively. A lackluster trading pace in the Western Fir plywood market prompted producers to once again lower prices in search of sales. Prompt shipping availability remained in place, with lead times touching into the week of November 19. Canadian plywood saw brisk sales this week, as order files moved out past the end of the year for most producers and buyers tried to bolster thin inventory positions. One producer faced operation issues while two others are approaching capital projects, further tightening the market. Particleboard and MDF markets continued the same trends as past weeks. Sales remained good for both composites, giving mills good order files heading into the waning weeks of 2018.