RISI Crow’s Market Recap

A price index of lumber and panels used in actual construction for June 29, 2018.

Western: regional species perimeter foundation
Southern: regional species slab construction

Crow's Market Recap: A condensed recap of the market conditions for the major North American softwood lumber and panel products as reported in Crow's Weekly Market Report.


Lumber

SPF pricing exhibited less downside than in prior weeks. Helped by a greater focus on Doug Fir sales and an uptick in sales late the week prior, western producers reported SPF 2x4 and 2x6 #2&Btr order files extending as far out as mid-July. Traders anticipated a disjointed upcoming week, with Canada Day observed Monday and Wednesday’s Fourth of July.

• Southern Pine prices continued their decline as buyers considered the potential for more downward moves. Most pressure was present in the highest priced items – 2x4 and 2x6. Meanwhile, 2x10 remained the least susceptible to deep discounts, buoyed somewhat by limited supplies.


• Discounting persisted among many Coastal species framing lumber items; however, price cuts overall were not as severe as in prior weeks. Improved green Doug Fir sales lessened the need for producers to lower those prices.


• Although Inland lumber prices sank further, this week demonstrated a definite bottoming of the market. All producers reported that prices had stopped falling, even though the week saw some declines of as much as $25 on some items.


• Discounted stud pricing was less evident than in prior weeks, with several 9’ prices able to hold up better. Some mills, looking a little more earnestly to move volumes in the latter half of the week, prompted buyers to question the level of strength in the marketplace.


• Radiata Pine has become more constrained from the supply side, based on the arrangement between New Zealand and China regarding logs.


• Ponderosa Pine industrial lumber remains fixed and quite predictable, as it has been for months. Ponderosa Pine Selects and Commons were generally steady with regard to both pace and price. The week resulted in no changes in any Select prices and a few modest changes in Commons.


• Western Red Cedar sales activity at mills was steady overall and not as brisk as the year prior. This has led producers to question whether market share is being lost to alternative products. One item that is struggling is decking.

Panels

Buyers backed farther away from the OSB market this week as prices tumbled sharply. Special deal offerings were prevalent as trading levels were sought but not readily found. Order files are prompt to July 16. Inventories are light, and no one is jumping in to purchase extra inventory.

• Southern Pine plywood producers experienced another sluggish week of trading. Buyers continued to hold out, working off previously purchased volumes, approaching the market cautiously while perceiving continued weakness.


• Slow trading forced Western Fir plywood producers to approach the market a bit more aggressively, although a mild uptick in activity was reported in the latter stages of the week. CDX discounts expanded beyond the 1/2" 4 ply price cuts taking place the prior few weeks.


• Canadian plywood activity quieted further this week. Some described a two-tiered market, with very little mill-level action and some discounts coming from distribution. Pricing remained unchanged.


• Particleboard and MDF producers continued the process of raising prices due to resin cost increases and rising freight rates. Increases were uneven, often depending on the customer.

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