Canada’s fires and the impact on lumber supplies

As the wildfires continue to burn in Alberta, Canada, along with other regions of the country, thick layers of smoke and hazy skies descended on the Northeast this week.

On June 7, New York declared that it had the worst pollution in the world while the smell of smoke expanded throughout the region. An image of Yankee Stadium posted online that afternoon looked as if the ballpark had been dropped onto the landscape of Mars.

Sporting events and Broadway shows were canceled in the city while recess and gym classes moved back indoors in the suburbs. Warnings for residents to stay inside were issued frequently.

But the fires did not happen overnight and actually began as far back as March. 

As of June 5, the fires in Canada had burned well over 9 million acres as the country has witnessed more than 2,200 fires this year. There are about 425 fires across Canada with more than half out of control, authorities have said.

On the lumber front, the situation is causing some to speculate how the fires will impact prices.

“Wildfires can cause a feeling of panic among lumber customers,” says Kéta Kosman, owner and publisher of Madison’s Lumber Reporter based in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Madison’s Lumber Reporter provides the latest on softwood lumber news, prices, and industry insights.

Kosman told HBSDealer that the fires ignited as winter snow began melting in Canada’s forests. But that’s also toward the tail end of the logging season.

The seasonality of log harvesting takes place during the opposite time of the year when housing and lumber sales are strong. 

According to Kosman, the fires have also taken place away from Canada’s sawmill population. 

“I expect the log supply to be robust,” Kosman said. “Given where lumber sales are now, there shouldn’t be a problem with log supply.”

However, there is room for the market to see the fires as a negative impact that results in higher prices.

“Sentiment and perception play into the market,” Kosman noted.