Housing starts will likely see a double-digit decrease in 2023, according to the latest forecast from National Association Home Builders (NAHB) Chief Economist Robert Dietz.
During a live presentation, Dietz covered a lot of ground in regard to what lies ahead for residential construction and how the industry got there.
But in the immediate future, 2022 will see an overall decline in housing starts, followed by a big falloff in 2023 before the market begins to stabilize in 2024.
Despite what other economists might say, Dietz said we are already in a recession and pointed to declines in housing starts, permits, new home sales, and existing home sales — all drivers of the economy. Additionally, builder confidence measured by the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index has declined for 11 straight months.
“The only ingredient missing is a rise in unemployment and that's coming,” Dietz said. “A recession is an accurate way to describe what we are going through.”
The live webinar, presented by the NAHB and the association’s ProBuilder publication, was virtually attended by more than 700 builders and industry professionals and moderated by Editorial Director Rich Binsacca.
Attendees were given numerous poll questions during the event with the first asking if they thought the nation was already in a recession, and 82% agreed.