Poll results: Revised housing forecast

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Poll results: Revised housing forecast

By HBSDealer Staff - 06/26/2020

Last year, there were 1.29 million housing starts.

It was the best year for starts since 2007, and as 2020 turned the corner, things were looking up. Total housing starts in January came in at a rip-roaring seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.617 million.

Then came the pandemic. And those high hopes for big numbers slowed to an April pace of 934,000, and a May pace of 974,000. That was the first two-month period since early 2015 for back-to-back reports of less than a million total starts.

A late January survey of HBSDealer readers revealed a plurality (30%) of respondents predicted 1.3 million to 1.4 million starts in 2020. 

In the late June survey, it seems expectations have been lowered. A plurality (again 30%) predicted total starts of 1.0 million to 1.1 million.

HBSDealer asked: “Now what’s your total housing starts forecast for 2020?” Here are the results:

Source: HBSDealer poll question

Readers aren't the only group to revise their forecast downward.

The National Association of Home Builders' early-year forecast of 1.3 million has been downgraded to 1.079 million as of June 6.

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