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12/16/2022

Poll results: Housing starts forecast

The plurality of respondents expects a construction slowdown in 2023.

The latest HBSDealer poll question asked for readers’ forecast for 2023 total housing starts, a metric that has risen steadily since the depths of 2009, a year that saw 554,000 starts.

Next year, the plurality of respondents (37 percent) expect a double-digit percent decline, a prediction in line with the forecasters at the National Association of Home Builders. (See article here.)

Here’s the poll results:

Source: HBSDealer poll question. (n-170)

[Click on the chart above to add your forecast to the survey.]

Residential construction data from the U.S. Census Bureau will be released Dec. 20, featuring total starts and single-family starts for the month of November.

Since 2011, total housing starts have risen steadily, from 608,800 in 2011 to the 2021 total of 1,601,000. 

So far this year, after 10 months of data from the U.S. Census Bureau, there have been 1,348,000 total housing starts, a figure that is just slightly ahead of the first 10 months of 2021 (1,346,100).