European forecast: Optimistic and wobbly
Cologne, Germany — European economists have a new phrase to describe their expectations for future growth. Out of fashion is "cautiously optimistic." In fashion is "moderately positive, but wobbly."
At least that’s how Dr. Alexander Bursch, director of research at Deloitte Germany, described his economic forecast for Europe. In a presentation here at the Presidents Council Retail Trends event during the Internationale Eisenwarenmesse (International Hardware Fair), Bursch added his voice to the chorus calling for a recovery for both Europe and the United States. He also pointed to the U.S. situation as a model for how that recovery might play out.
The question on the table was "After the Great Recession, what’s next for Europe?" The short answer: slow growth of 0.7% to 1.2% in 2014.
One difficulty, however, in predicting Eurozone growth is the disparate economies across the continent. Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Italy trail in growth and employment, while Poland, Germany and Austria lead the way.
Across Europe, a 12% to 13% unemployment rate is unprecedented, plus it rises to about 25% in crisis countries. The recovery will be aided by reforms in Eurozone crisis countries that are gaining traction. Still, it will be "wobbly."
"Don’t expect a rubber band that springs back," he said. "It will be moderate, step-by-step recovery."
Lessons from the U.S. recovery are likely to play out in Europe, he said. Chief among them is the concept that Americans turned increasingly to lower-priced products and brands, and found them to be better than they expected.
Post-recession, he expects consumers will stick to lower price points, shop with less brand loyalty and generally avoid risk where possible — saving more and using the credit card less.
"Consumers will start spending money again — but more cautiously," he concluded.
Paul Sullivan named chairman of NAHB Remodelers
Remodeler Paul Sullivan, CAPS, CGR, CGP, of Waterville Valley, N.H., was named the 2014 chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Remodelers during the International Builders’ Show in Las Vegas.
“Professional remodelers are a driving force within the National Association of Home Builders,” said Sullivan, president of the Sullivan Company Inc. “I am honored to represent our remodeler members as NAHB Remodelers chairman at a time of growth for our organization and industry.”
Sullivan has served the Builders and Remodelers Association of Greater Boston as president and was named the Remodeler of the Year twice by that association. He isa n NAHB Life Director and has has chaired and served on numerous committees within NAHB. In 2013, Sullivan was named the NAHB Green Advocate of the Year and was also honored as a Green Partner of Excellence from the Home Innovation Research Labs for his work developing the 2012 National Green Building Standard.
Sullivan is a third generation remodeling contractor. His Newton, Mass.-based company provides residential remodeling in the greater Boston area.
In 2014, Sullivan will lead NAHB Remodelers as the housing industry continues to recover amid increased regulation and scrutiny from governmental agencies. He will work with members of Congress to help level the playing field for professional remodelers throughout the country who can provide safe, efficient and comfortable homes for their clients.
Haier announces new HQ location
Home appliance and consumer electronics manufacturer Haier America has chosen the northern New Jersey town of Wayne as the location of its new 56,000-sq.-ft. U.S. headquarters.
The new facility will be home to 200 employees, training centers, customer service operations and a product showroom where retailers can see new products and concepts. Renovations are currently under way on a building at 1800 Valley Road in Wayne, N.J., that will replace the company’s current office at 1356 Broadway in Manhattan this fall.
“As Haier continues to develop our footprint across the Americas, we believe it is important to establish a facility that is ready for the expansion,” said Adrian Micu, president and CEO of Haier America. “We are building an organization better suited to support our customers and consumers through a more holistic consumer-centric approach, and the new facility will foster this collaboration.”
Haier America is part of the Haier Group, a global company with more than 70,000 employees and annual sales of $29.5 billion.