Builder confidence drops slightly
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes dropped two points to a level of 72 in January on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, the NAHB reported.
Confidence had hit an 18-year high in December 2017.
“Builders are confident that changes to the tax code will promote the small business sector and boost broader economic growth,” said NAHB chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, La. “Our members are excited about the year ahead, even as they continue to face building material price increases and shortages of labor and lots.”
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number more than 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
The three HMI components registered relatively minor losses in January. The index gauging current sales conditions dropped one point to 79, the component charting sales expectations in the next six months fell a single point to 78, and the index measuring buyer traffic fell four points to 54.
“The HMI gauge of future sales expectations has remained in the 70s, a sign that housing demand should continue to grow in 2018,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz. “As the overall economy strengthens, owner-occupied household formation increases and the supply of existing home inventory tightens, we can expect the single-family housing market to make further gains this year.”
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the West rose two points to 81, the South increased one point to 73, the Midwest inched up a single point to 70 and the Northeast climbed five points to 59.
Kitchen and bath sales on the rise
A new report from the National Kitchen & Bath Association projects strong growth for the kitchen and bath industry.
“The Size of Market Study and Outlook” estimates the total kitchen and bath sector rose more than 10% to $163 billion in 2017 and will rise another 9.3% to reach $178 billion in 2018.
The association’s initial study — the first of its kind to define the size of the U.S. residential kitchen and bath market, according to the NKBA — found total market size to be $134.1 billion in 2015. A follow-up study showed the industry had grown to and $147.3 in 2016.
“This dramatic double-digit spike in just one year is a testament to the health of this key industry,” said Bill Darcy, NKBA’s CEO. “It’s a vibrant and growing segment of the economy, and based on our research, our projections indicate that it will continue to thrive.”
The study was developed relying on various sources, including secondary published market information as well as interviews conducted among key professional segments. Additionally, the study represents only products and excludes design services and costs of labor and installation. Data from the 2016 report and collected in the 2017 survey were combined to generate the projections for 2017 and forecast for 2018, the NKBA said.
The overall kitchen and bath segment accounts for about 25% of overall residential construction, according to the NKBA.
Based in Hackettstown, N.J., the NKBA is the not-for-profit trade association that owns the Kitchen & Bath Industry Show, as part of Design and Construction Week. Founded in 1963, the NKBA has nearly 14,000 member companies.